The Most Beautiful Thing (TMBT) 2017 - My 100km Preview

TMBT 100k is around the corner and naturally with an "A" race, I went and immerse myself with all the information available to come up with a plan. Apart from the obvious reason, I think having a plan is comforting. It reduces the unknown and chance of a DNF. It's also a away for me to actually go through the information provided by the organizers. Based on previous ultra races, I am preparing for 3 department in general: Gear, Nutrition and Effort. Preparing for this means I have to know/predict what I'm up against: Elevation gain (how many meters of climbing), gain per km ratio (a number/ratio to compare steepness in relation to distance) and gain/loss difference (low number means there are some parts where I can probably run). Other factor to consider include my estimated ETA at these stations to monitor COT and also weather conditions.

More info: http://www.borneoultra.com/tmbt1/race-info/general

1. Everything starts with calculating pace/finishing time prediction which I also did for previous races. Only this time I also calculated for each segments/stations.Time and duration estimates are derived from previous race pace vs gain per km trend formula.

Estimated Average pace: 10:41 min/km
Estimated Finish duration: 19 h 45 mins
Estimated finish time: 1:45 AM

2. Forecasted weather and temperature on 16 September 2017:

Temperature: 17 - 28 C
Weather: Rain storm in the afternoon

http://www.met.gov.my/web/metmalaysia/forecasts/general/touristdestinations

3. Race profile:

Distance: 103 km
Gain: 5420 m
Loss: 4170 m
Gain/loss difference: 1250 m
Gain per km: 48.81

4. Instructions at each station:

P- Pole, SP - Stow pole, M - Maintenance, R - Rain gear, PR - Pray, B - Fill Bladder, SF - Solid food, HE - High effort, A - attack, LD - long distance to next

Notes:

1. Looks like it's not going to be that hot but rain is a concern. Based on the profile, generally, the second half has more runnables than the first like going to W2, W7 and W9 - W11. There are some pretty tough climbs especially going to W4 and W5 and biggest climb is reserved for the last climb to the finish.There are also stations that's quite far to get to and coupled that with some climb it's going to be tough as well. These are station W3,W6,W7 and finish (W6). W6 is halfway and also where the finish line is. Expecting that it'll be more stocked and have more facilities.

2. Execution wise, the goal is to keep moving and not spend time idling like I did in CULTRA, always stay on top of nutrition to avoid bonking like in GNU, be competitive like I did in KOKK and stay calm/pace myself like I did in TMMT. Realistically I'm going to have to walk/hike the uphill and try and run the downhill. But first and foremost, I must not mess up my pre-race nutrition by properly eating and tapering/resting/sleep in the final few days leading up to the race.

3. Although I tried to analyze and interpret as much information as possible, there are other unknowns like how I'd respond to running at night and maybe sleep deprived. I also don't know how my body will operate after 65km especially in wet shoes/gear. There are also changing weather and other unforeseen circumstances.

4. Gear:

a) Going to use poles as this has proven to be helpful in training. Trade off is that it's not exactly light and hassle to stow.
b) Rain jacket. Might swap for a lighter one at half way.
c) Bring lots of socks and plenty of vaseline to avoid blisters.

5. Nutrition:

a) Full hydration system with bladder. There are some long sections and I need all the tailwind nutrition in them.
b) Solid food halfway.
c) What ever the station serve - coke, sweet stuff and hopefully fruits.

6. Race effort:
a) Always aerobic unless no choice like climbing steep.
b) Run comfortably at the runnables.
c) Try and attack the second half downhills and grind it out the final climb.
d) Relax and calm.
3) Have fun and take pictures (but not too much).

Final note:

1. The purpose of modelling/forecasting is essentially to produce insights which then be used to help with planning. It is not about being accurate and the outcome of this race largely depend on how the day will go and how I choose to follow my plan/how they actually work.

2. I might look back at this after the race and LOL but this is what I choose to do and how I approach races: preparation and execution. I think you have to be able to understand how you work in races to fulfill your potential and that means before and after assesment of a race.

3. Input is especially important and I've used previous metrics and experiences. That's what training/tune up races is for. Though these numbers is not plucked from the sky or wild guesses, I can't resist to come up with a target which is totally arbitrary. I am hoping for a sub 20hr finish. I'm already LOL.

p.s:

Ideas adapted from Andrew Skurka. More info at:

http://andrewskurka.com/tag/pace-chart-tutorial/